China, China, China. That has been the drum beat for quite a few years now. China is definitely our pacing threat in terms of capabilities and capacity, and their national objectives. A loss would be catastrophic for more than just the United States. But often the most dangerous course of action--because of the environment--is not the one that immediately carries the greatest risk. Instead, it is the Most Likely Course of Action that is sure to whittle us down by a thousand paper cuts that becomes the defacto Most Dangerous Course of Action.

China's military is ascending in capabilities, capacity, and overall expertise. Having stolen much of the US's technology regarding low-observable aircraft, China has been busy developing and producing copy-cat 5th generation fighters to project their forces and meet ours head-on. For a fight in the Pacific, China's supply lines are monumentally shorter than ours, allowing them to focus more resources on the tactical fight instead of feeding the fight.

China's production has outstripped the American war machine in every aspect, and we can no longer assume our technical prowess against China. Their manufacturing capacity is not hindered by miles of government regulation and environmental and labor concerns as ours. Their students do not study sociology or Women's studies, but instead are focused in the greatness of the nation and its productive capacity. We cannot ignore them, cannot dismiss them because of their lack of freedoms. We must have a deterrent force capable of confronting. China. But that is not the only threat we face, and the sum of all others may end up being much worse.

The Middle East is a disaster, with organizations and governments who are set on destroying the United States and our way of life. Africa also has multiple governments and terrorist organizations that see our riches as the ultimate prize. Russia is not the Soviet Union, but still a nuclear threat with aspirations beyond its borders. Throw in Venezuela, North Korea, rogue organizations in the South INDOPACIFIC, drug cartels, the Southern Border, and you have a satchel of threats that individually are easily manageable, but together represent a threat potentially greater than a war with China.

Why? Because many of those conflicts are here, sucking our resources, focus, and capacity. While we focus on the war that might be, we are draining our treasury and consuming our military and manufacturing capacity across the globe with dozens of other conflicts right now. And many/most of those conflicts do not require a stealthy 5th/6th generation force with collaborative combat aircraft, unmanned submarines and stealthy bombers. They require portions of mass, focused force, and operational/tactical expertise that will not come by building small fleets of high-end vehicles.

Today we are engaged in conflict in the Middle East with Iran thru a proxy terrorist organization, and in various forms that same conflict it has cost us American blood and $Trillions over the past 30 years.

We may very well fight with China at some point. But we are fighting, and will definitely fight with other threats that combined have the potential to harm our nation as much as any fight with China.

Our force plans cannot only focus on the pacing threat, but take a broader view of what puts our nation in peril militarily. Were we to do so, our force would indeed have the higher-end capabilities needed for some of a China conflict in an anti-access/area denial environment. But it would also be solid on SOF, solid on lower-cost conventional forces where numbers matter. It would be sufficient to train tactical/operational decision makers with strategic wisdom, something that will be much more difficult with a small high end force. It will look closely at exotic capabilities when often all that is needed is functional, economic and easily replaceable.

Those comprehensive force structure plans would focus on an industrial capability that includes a more robust private industry capability that does not currently exist in the US now.

We have a lot of work to to, and it goes well beyond penetrating the Weapons Engagement Zone around Taiwan and its bordering nations. Not doing so puts our nation in great peril, even if we never fight China.